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Plumb/Square
Tools/Earnings Model

The 5-Year
Earnings Model.

Real wage data from 73,321 DOL apprentice completion records. Not estimates. Not marketing copy. Actual wages paid, on record.

Completion rate
48.4%

Year-by-Year: Electrician

Linear interpolation between DOL-recorded average starting wage ($16.88/hr) and completion wage ($33.99/hr) · 2,000 hours/year

Year 1
$16.88
per hour
$33.8K
this year
Year 2
$21.16
per hour
$42.3K
this year
Year 3
$25.44
per hour
$50.9K
this year
Year 4
$29.71
per hour
$59.4K
this year
Year 5
$33.99
per hour
$68.0K
this year
Total earned during apprenticeship
$254K
Journeyman annual (at completion)
$68K
Tuition cost
$0
Student loan debt
$0

vs. a 4-Year Degree

National averages · 4-year public college · NCES 2024 cost data

APPRENTICESHIP
Tuition cost$0
Student loan debt at finish$0
Earnings during training$254K
Completion rate48.4%
Starting wage after completion$33.99/hr
Net financial position at year 5+$254K
4-YEAR COLLEGE
Tuition + room + board (4 yr)-$153K
Avg student loan debt-$37.6K
Earnings during school (foregone)-$135K
Graduation rate (6-year)64%
Avg starting wage (all degrees)$22.5/hr
Net financial position at year 5-$191K
Total financial swing — apprenticeship vs. college at year 5
$542K

Apprenticeship earnings ($254K) + college cost avoided ($153K) + foregone earnings avoided ($135K). Does not include post-graduation income difference.

College cost source: NCES Digest of Education Statistics 2024 (average total cost, 4-year public). Student debt: Federal Reserve Education Debt data 2024. Starting wage: BLS OEWS median for bachelor's degree holders, all occupations. Trade wage data: DOL RAPIDS FY26 Q1, computed from 73,321 completion records.

Expected value, accounting for dropout risk

The 48.4% completion rate is real. Here's the math if you weight the earnings by your odds of finishing.

If you complete (probability: 48.4%)
$254K earned
during apprenticeship, then journeyman wage for life
If you don't complete (probability: 51.6%)
Still got paid
Avg dropout at ~18 months = ~$51K earned. No debt. Real-world construction experience that still has value.
The downside vs. college dropout
$0 debt
A college dropout averages $13,000 in student debt with no degree. An apprenticeship dropout has zero debt and cash in hand.
Ready to look at real completion rates?

The data behind this tool — by trade, state, and age at start.

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